As energy markets move into 2026, prices are are expected to be far more stable than the crisis years of 2021–2023. However, stability does
not automatically mean lower bills. For many households, being on the wrong energy plan—especially default pricing—can quietly cost more than market conditions themselves.
This 2026 Energy Outlook explains what to expect for Electricity and Natural Gas prices, clarifies how Alberta’s billing system actually works, and outlines practical steps homeowners and businesses can take to avoid overpaying.
📌 The Big Picture for 2026
The 2026 Energy Outlook shows that energy markets in 2026 are expected to more balanced than in recent years, but they are still influenced by weather, global demand, and supply constraints.
Key themes in the 2026 Energy Outlook include:
- Natural gas prices are expected to rise modestly from what was experienced in 2024–2025, supported by stronger global demand and LNG exports.
- Electricity prices are expected to remain moderate on average, though they remain sensitive to weather, system demand, and market conditions.
- For most households and businesses, total energy use and plan choice matter more than short-term price forecasts.
The most important takeaway: cost control in 2026 is about managing exposure—not predicting a single price.
🔥 Natural Gas Trends in the 2026 Energy Outlook
2026 Energy Outlook: Natural Gas Price Expectations
- Expected range: $4.5 – $5.0 per GJ
- Higher risk: Colder-than-normal winters
- Lower risk: Mild weather or strong supply conditions
What This Means for Your Gas Bill
- Heating efficiency and heat loss have a bigger impact on costs than small price changes.
- Regulated or variable gas rates move with the market and may benefit when prices fall.
- Fixed gas rates provide budget certainty but reduce flexibility.
In many homes, improving insulation, sealing drafts, and maintaining heating equipment delivers greater savings than switching rates alone.
⚡ Electricity Trends in the 2026 Energy Outlook
2026 Energy Outlook: Electricity Price Expectations
- Expected range: 8.5 cents – 9.5 cents per MWh
- Key risks: Cold snaps, high system demand, supply constraints
What This Means for Alberta Households
- You are not charged different electricity rates by hour of the day
- There is no direct peak pricing on residential electricity bills
- Your bill is based on:
- Your chosen electricity plan (fixed, floating, or Rate of Last Resort), and
- Total monthly consumption (kWh)
Why Market Conditions Still Matter
Even without peak billing:
- Alberta’s wholesale electricity market still experiences price spikes during periods of high demand.
- These costs are reflected over time in:
- The Rate of Last Resort (RoLR), and
- Floating or variable retail electricity rates.
In short: you are not billed by the hour, but market volatility still affects what you pay over time.
⚠️ Rate of Last Resort in the 2026 Energy Outlook
This 2026 Energy Outlook highlights the Rate of Last Resort (RoLR) as a default electricity option, not a savings strategy.
Most households on RoLR:
- Did not actively choose a plan
- Pay a rate not tailored to their usage
- Can often save by switching to a competitive energy option
👉 Compare electricity plans using Muvar’s energy comparison tool
🏠 What the 2026 Energy Outlook Recommends for Households
2026 Energy Outlook: How to Lower Your Energy Bill
1. Reduce heat loss
- Improve attic insulation
- Seal drafts
- Maintain furnaces
2. Reduce total electricity use
- Upgrade lighting and appliances
- Avoid portable electric heaters
3. Choose the right energy plan
- Fixed = predictable
- Floating = flexible
- RoLR = default, not optimized
The 2026 Energy Outlook emphasizes that plan choice often matters more than short-term price predictions.
📊 2026 Energy Snapshot
| Energy Type | 2026 Base Outlook | Main Cost Risk |
| Natural Gas | $4.5 – $5.0 / GJ | Cold winters |
| Electricity | 8.5 cents – 9.5 cents/ kWh | System demand |
✅ Bottom Line
- Alberta households do not currently face peak-period electricity billing.
- Energy costs in 2026 will be driven by total consumption, plan choice, and efficiency.
- The Rate of Last Resort is a safety net—not a savings plan.
- Comparing energy plans and improving efficiency usually saves more than rate-shopping alone.
👉 Use Muvar to compare electricity and natural gas rates and choose a plan that fits your household or business—rather than settling for the default.
